‘Black swan’ events that aren't: Coronavirus, climate emergency, unidentified aerial phenomena

By Steve Hammons

A “black swan event” is one that is almost totally unexpected, is high-profile and has very significant impacts. It is viewed in hindsight as if it could have been foreseen and prepared for, even if this is not completely accurate since some events might involve truly random elements.

The concept is based on an ancient Latin expression from the second century referring to something that was impossible, as they believed at the time that all swans were white. However, when black swans were discovered by Europeans in 1697, the term came to mean impossible events that turned out to be quite possible after all.

A more recent expression related to the black swan concept is the “gray rhino.” This refers to something that, like a black swan situation, has major effects, but is not an outlier and is something that should be expected.

The black swan theory is used in forecasting and preparedness of various kinds, including economic prediction, national security threats and global health.

Implicit in black swan scenarios is the fact that most situations are not black swans and can be predicted and prepared for with thoughtful forecasting analysis – and often, with common sense, average intelligence and responsible behavior.

GRAY RHINO CAN DO DAMAGE

In analyzing three current situations facing the human race on Earth, it seems helpful to determine if these are black swan or gray rhino scenarios:

1) Coronavirus pandemic

2) Climate emergency

3) Unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP)

And we can apply the same analysis to other developments that could occur, such as severe earthquakes on California's San Andreas fault or the Pacific Northwest's Cascadia Subduction Zone fault.

In the coronavirus situation, as we know, there have been centuries of human experience with epidemics and pandemics. As a result, in more modern times we have developed medications, treatments, and specific medical and public health prevention measures and interventions.

Humans have also developed and deployed biological warfare, using disease as a weapon. This tactic was used against Native Americans during early Indian wars in North America. And, intentional or not, European diseases killed tens of thousands of Native American children, women and men.

Emerging disease epidemics or pandemics have happened multiple times in recent decades. Entire U.S. government agencies and numerous professionals are tasked with preparing for and responding to such situations – situations that are basically expected. 

In fact, in recent years pandemic disease has routinely been on the list of national security threats facing the U.S. So, the coronavirus is seemingly a gray rhino, not a black swan.

Applying some of these same approaches to climate change, we know that many scientific experts have clearly identified scientific data about the causes, trajectory and probable or certain outcomes of climate change.

These outcomes have been repeatedly identified as fitting one of the criteria of a black swan situation – major impacts. And, climate change has been identified as a threat to U.S. national security.

But, obviously, these outcomes are not unexpected at all. So, when major, catastrophic, environmental tipping points are reached, possibly in the near future, it will not be accurate to say it was a black swan. It will be a huge, dangerous, gray rhino charging right at us, doing serious damage.

EXPECT THE EXPECTED

A third type of black swan or gray rhino is related to that “tic-tac” UFO or UAP in the news that was encountered by U.S. Navy pilots off the coast of San Diego. Other similar incidents have occurred in recent years involving Navy aviators.

A robust number of well-researched news reports, articles, scientific papers, books, documentary films, some Hollywood movies and a few credible TV shows clearly seem to indicate that UAP are real. Recent official statements by the Navy note the same thing.

Additionally, the UAP appear to be of different types, and have been encountered in many locations, time frames and situations around the world by credible people.

It might be worth keeping in mind that a black swan or gray rhino might not always have to be a harmful situation, though the terms are usually referenced in this context. Something along the lines of a black swan or gray rhino could just denote significant changes, something highly unusual or even even positive developments.

For example, in the mid-evening hours on March 13, 1997, a large number of witnesses reported a somewhat huge, boomerang-shaped or V-shaped object with large lights underneath cruise over Phoenix, Arizona. It’s a famous case of course, and there are many others.

In the so-called “Phoenix lights” incident, the large object reportedly glided slowly and silently at a fairly low altitude right through the middle of the metro Phoenix area. Lots of people outdoors on that pleasant evening saw it. The then-governor of Arizona, Fife Symington, went outside and saw it.

So, it seems that a significant UAP incident or development would be considered a gray rhino, not a black swan. Yet, whether a certain scenario is a black swan or a gray rhino, unexpected or expected, their key common denominator is that they both have major impacts.

It’s wise to “expect the unexpected.” And, it’s not a bad idea to “expect the expected.”


(Related articles "Navy Research Project on Intuition," "Human perception key in hard power, soft power, smart power" and “Storytelling affects human biology, beliefs, behavior” are posted on the CultureReady blog, Defense Language and National Security Education Office, Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness, U.S. Department of Defense.)