‘Black swan’ events that aren't: Coronavirus, climate emergency, unidentified aerial phenomena

By Steve Hammons

A “black swan event” is one that is almost totally unexpected, is high-profile and has very significant impacts. It is viewed in hindsight as if it could have been foreseen and prepared for, even if this is not completely accurate since some events might involve truly random elements.

The concept is based on an ancient Latin expression from the second century referring to something that was impossible, as they believed at the time that all swans were white. However, when black swans were discovered by Europeans in 1697, the term came to mean impossible events that turned out to be quite possible after all.

A more recent expression related to the black swan concept is the “gray rhino.” This refers to something that, like a black swan situation, has major effects, but is not an outlier and is something that should be expected.

The black swan theory is used in forecasting and preparedness of various kinds, including economic prediction, national security threats and global health.

Implicit in black swan scenarios is the fact that most situations are not black swans and can be predicted and prepared for with thoughtful forecasting analysis – and often, with common sense, average intelligence and responsible behavior.

GRAY RHINO CAN DO DAMAGE

In analyzing three current situations facing the human race on Earth, it seems helpful to determine if these are black swan or gray rhino scenarios:

1) Coronavirus pandemic

2) Climate emergency

3) Unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP)

And we can apply the same analysis to other developments that could occur, such as severe earthquakes on California's San Andreas fault or the Pacific Northwest's Cascadia Subduction Zone fault.

In the coronavirus situation, as we know, there have been centuries of human experience with epidemics and pandemics. As a result, in more modern times we have developed medications, treatments, and specific medical and public health prevention measures and interventions.

Humans have also developed and deployed biological warfare, using disease as a weapon. This tactic was used against Native Americans during early Indian wars in North America. And, intentional or not, European diseases killed tens of thousands of Native American children, women and men.

Emerging disease epidemics or pandemics have happened multiple times in recent decades. Entire U.S. government agencies and numerous professionals are tasked with preparing for and responding to such situations – situations that are basically expected. 

In fact, in recent years pandemic disease has routinely been on the list of national security threats facing the U.S. So, the coronavirus is seemingly a gray rhino, not a black swan.

Applying some of these same approaches to climate change, we know that many scientific experts have clearly identified scientific data about the causes, trajectory and probable or certain outcomes of climate change.

These outcomes have been repeatedly identified as fitting one of the criteria of a black swan situation – major impacts. And, climate change has been identified as a threat to U.S. national security.

But, obviously, these outcomes are not unexpected at all. So, when major, catastrophic, environmental tipping points are reached, possibly in the near future, it will not be accurate to say it was a black swan. It will be a huge, dangerous, gray rhino charging right at us, doing serious damage.

EXPECT THE EXPECTED

A third type of black swan or gray rhino is related to that “tic-tac” UFO or UAP in the news that was encountered by U.S. Navy pilots off the coast of San Diego. Other similar incidents have occurred in recent years involving Navy aviators.

A robust number of well-researched news reports, articles, scientific papers, books, documentary films, some Hollywood movies and a few credible TV shows clearly seem to indicate that UAP are real. Recent official statements by the Navy note the same thing.

Additionally, the UAP appear to be of different types, and have been encountered in many locations, time frames and situations around the world by credible people.

It might be worth keeping in mind that a black swan or gray rhino might not always have to be a harmful situation, though the terms are usually referenced in this context. Something along the lines of a black swan or gray rhino could just denote significant changes, something highly unusual or even even positive developments.

For example, in the mid-evening hours on March 13, 1997, a large number of witnesses reported a somewhat huge, boomerang-shaped or V-shaped object with large lights underneath cruise over Phoenix, Arizona. It’s a famous case of course, and there are many others.

In the so-called “Phoenix lights” incident, the large object reportedly glided slowly and silently at a fairly low altitude right through the middle of the metro Phoenix area. Lots of people outdoors on that pleasant evening saw it. The then-governor of Arizona, Fife Symington, went outside and saw it.

So, it seems that a significant UAP incident or development would be considered a gray rhino, not a black swan. Yet, whether a certain scenario is a black swan or a gray rhino, unexpected or expected, their key common denominator is that they both have major impacts.

It’s wise to “expect the unexpected.” And, it’s not a bad idea to “expect the expected.”


(Related articles "Navy Research Project on Intuition," "Human perception key in hard power, soft power, smart power" and “Storytelling affects human biology, beliefs, behavior” are posted on the CultureReady blog, Defense Language and National Security Education Office, Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness, U.S. Department of Defense.)

National security expert says recent UFOs are ‘threat unmet’

By Steve Hammons
 
In a Feb. 18, 2020, article titled “A Threat Unmet” in the magazine of the American Legion military veterans organization, a former U. S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for intelligence wrote about “unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP)” in close proximity to U.S. Navy aircraft carrier strike groups at sea and related factors.
 
Christopher Mellon updated readers of American Legion Magazine about specifics of the encounters between Navy pilots and what appeared to be unusual objects performing incredible gravity-transcending maneuvers at fantastic speeds.
 
He began his article reviewing the groundbreaking Dec. 16, 2017, news report in the New York Times about encounters between Navy jet pilots and very odd objects. Mellon also covered the subsequent development when the spokesman for the deputy chief of naval operations publicly stated that the objects are unidentified aerial phenomena – that is, they are not U.S. craft.
 
Mellon noted that this statement by the Navy was a step toward more openness about the situation – especially compared to the U.S. Air Force’s Project Sign (1948), Project Grudge (beginning in 1949) and Project Blue Book (1952-1970).
 
At the same time, Mellon states that from his viewpoint, U.S. government national security agencies and Congress don’t seem to be doing enough to investigate and respond to this highly-unusual situation. As to what might have been going on behind the scenes over the decades regarding UFOs, he seems to refrain from commenting on that possible element of U.S. government-related activities.
 
NATIONAL SECURITY RESPONSE
 
Mellon recalled some of the views of J. Allen Hynek, PhD, the Ohio State University astronomy professor who worked on the Air Force’s Project Blue Book at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. Hynek seemed to believe that the Air Force’s public statements about UFOs didn’t completely line up with his investigations and observations, Mellon reminded us.
 
And as to the more recent Navy UFO encounters, Mellon appeared concerned when he writes that, “No major investigations have been launched. There is no indication the DoD or intelligence community leadership is engaged.”
 
He added, “And there is still no process for collecting and integrating pertinent information about UFO/UAPs from the myriad agencies and departments that possess it (NASA, the National Reconnaissance Office, the FBI, the National Security Agency, the CIA, the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Department of Homeland Security, the armed forces and others).”
 
 “This paralysis is occurring at a time when the scientific community increasingly recognizes the possibility of humanity encountering probes from spacefaring civilizations,” Mellon said.
 
Importantly, he also pointed out to readers that, “Though Navy pilots have sounded the alarm – their testimony has appeared in print, online and on national television – there is still no sign that our massive DoD and intelligence bureaucracies, or our Congress, are seeking answers to the UFO/UAP mystery on behalf of military personnel who are potentially at risk from midair collisions if nothing else (one near miss by a Navy fighter has already been reported).”
 
“Pearl Harbor and 9/11 are tragic examples of intelligence failures that could have been avoided,” Mellon wrote. “Our continuing inability to identify the radical aerospace vehicles violating our airspace is an ongoing intelligence failure, one that arguably requires written notification to the House and Senate intelligence committees pursuant to Section 502 of the National Security Act of 1947.”
 
Has Mellon given up on an intelligent and reasonable response from Congress and the U.S. government?
 
He certainly seems somewhat discouraged when he writes, “While Congress has not received a formal notification regarding this failure, and perhaps never will, it is certainly aware that DoD is unable to identify these aircraft or prevent them from violating U.S. airspace. The question now is whether our leaders will remain passive out of concern for outdated stigmas or act on behalf of our servicemembers and our nation.”
 
To assist Congress and national security leaders on this topic, Mellon makes several suggestions about how to use our defense and intelligence assets to investigate, monitor, analyze, understand and make preparations regarding the apparent situation at hand.
 
TAIL WAGS DOG?
 
As a former federal government national security official, Mellon appears to naturally focus on Congress and formal U.S. defense activities. Like other interested people, he seems to want our elected U.S. representatives, senators and other federal officials to show insight, appropriate concern and effective response about a possible dire threat to our country.
 
Is Mellon likely to be disappointed? He appears hopeful that those individuals currently elected or appointed to the U.S. House of Representatives and U.S. Senate, and others in the federal government will demonstrate intelligent and responsible behavior when it comes to these unusual developments.

Could Mellon be expecting too much from Washington, D.C.? He seems to be advocating for an intelligent and appropriate response to what appears to be a possible significant threat, or at least a highly-unusual development to be concerned about.
 
Since he is a former U.S. government official, Mellon’s federal government-centric viewpoint is understandable, relevant and important.   

He also seems to be reaching out to a broad scope of American citizens and those in our armed forces and national security services, encouraging us to learn more and become more aware and engaged about these unidentified phenomena that Navy pilots are reporting.
 
And, of course, it has not just been Navy pilots. Over the years, military pilots from other services, other military personnel, civilian pilots, public safety peace officers and reliable witnesses from all walks of life have reported UFO/UAP incidents in the U.S. and around the world. 

In this article and others he’s penned, Mellon is informing us about these significant circumstances worth paying attention to. He’s trying to inform former and retired military members, and their families, friends and associates. He’s talking to all of us – grassroots active duty and reserve component military personnel, public safety first responders, students, and Americans and people around the world.
 
Maybe we would be wise to listen to him.


(Related article “Reagan’s 1987 UN speech on ‘alien threat’ resonates now” is posted on the CultureReady blog, Defense Language and National Security Education Office, Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness, U.S. Department of Defense.)